By Chris McCaa
It may seem unthinkable, but the recent success of the surge in Iraq could spell doom for the Republican presidential hopefuls in 2008. The current stumbling of the Giuliani campaign stands as a glaring example, and his fellow candidates would be well advised to take notice if they plan on escaping a similar fate.
It was only months ago when many Republicans were wondering who Rudy Giuliani’s running mate would be after he sowed up the Republican nomination. Some of my friends on the right were talking about his chances against a Democratic opponent like it was a foregone conclusion. Talk radio and cable news were buzzing like a high school cafeteria during prom week. Giuliani was the big man on campus and everyone wanted to know who he was taking to the dance. Rumors and innuendos were flying like spitballs in 7th period study hall. “I heard he’s gonna ask John McCain,” whispered one commentator. “No way, he’s totally taking Mitt Romney!” another snapped. “Shut up. Everyone knows he likes that Huckabee guy, and plus, they look cute together.”
Ah, but those were different days. Those were days when fear and rage still reigned supreme. Iraq was burning like a cheap frozen pizza in the oven, and the Bush administration was desperately trying to keep the fumes from reaching the smoke detector. Public outcry was growing louder by the minute, and stories began circulating through the back-halls of Congress about an angry mob headed towards Pennsylvania Avenue looking for blood. Things were getting out of hand. Immediate action had to be taken, so the White House began planning one last desperate attempt to salvage Bush’s legacy and any chance of a Republican majority in the Capital City for decades to come.
Against this chaotic backdrop stood Giuliani, like a pillar of hope and defiance. The world was crumbling all around him, but he wasn’t flinching. This was nothing new. He had done it once before on that dreadful morning in New York City seven years ago. The city was burning, but Giuliani was there to put out the flames and the whole world took notice. "Tomorrow New York is going to be here," he said. "And we're going to rebuild, and we're going to be stronger than we were before...I want the people of New York to be an example to the rest of the country, and the rest of the world, that terrorism can't stop us."
After announcing his candidacy for president of the United States, Giuliani quickly became the front runner, riding a wave of popularity that would have made Mother Teresa blush. His platform of law and order sat well with Republicans and millions of other Americans in a climate of fear and confusion. The next president of the United Sates stood to inherit a spectacular mess in Iraq and continuing threats from the Ghost of Tora Bora, known to most of us as Osama Bin Laden. Giuliani’s resume fit the bill. He was a warm blanket of safety and security to an American public that had been left to shiver out in the cold for too long.
In the mean time, that desperate plan being hatched by the Bush administration came in the form of a troop surge in Iraq. The 41st President soon tasted something he hadn’t since November of 2004, success. When the boots on the ground increased, the violence decreased. As a result, Americans began to cautiously look in a direction long since forgotten, inward, towards domestic issues. This is when the real trouble began.
Without the specter of an imminent threat from terrorists or a hostile state, Giuliani now faced a huge problem. Preaching safety and security to a nation trembling with fear was a cakewalk, but preaching the same message to a nation tasting a semblance of hope was a different proposition. His “liberal” social and domestic policies were quickly picked apart by the other Republican candidates, and the right wing of the party was no longer willing to overlook them in an exchange for safety. The once strident and courageous Mayor of New York City, who once stood tall in the face of terror, now looked like an impotent geriatric at a fertility clinic.
These problems, however, are not unique to Giuliani. As difficult as it may be for the folks on the right to admit, his predicament is a microcosm of the dilemma now facing Republicans. The party that was once unified by fear is now being torn apart by the lack of it. Without the war in Iraq and terrorism consuming the front pages, the divisions regarding domestic issues are being exposed. The small government economic conservatives and the social conservatives, favoring a more active and involved government, now find themselves in a battle for control of the party. The cruel winds of irony have left the party wandering the desert like blind sheep. Who will lead the herd? That is the question that has Republicans scrambling for answers.
It may be a new year and a new chapter in American politics, but it’s the same old and fitful world. The road to the White House promises to be a long and bumpy ride, filled with pitfalls and uncertainty, but the fate of the Republicans in the upcoming elections may be less governed by internal forces than by the outside influence of foreign affairs. As always, there will be those who dread a Republican victory in November for partisan concerns, but if the political machine once again solidifies and rises to victory, due to the reasons detailed here, we all may have much to fear in the months ahead.
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